The markets failed to move higher this week, the Dow closed down 0.24%. IBD has classified the up-trend as “under pressure” due to the numerous distribution days and I find myself curious as to how much longer the market can keep things moving higher.
Just a quick glance at the chart above and you can see that we have been having more down days than up days in the last two months.
At the recent high, the market has rebounded an astounding 54%. My question for you is what has changed since the bottom?
One opinion is that people moved their money into stocks because of their liquidity. I think there is definitely some truth in that idea, but think it mostly boils down to the same thing that moves the market every time: smart money deciding they are bullish/bearish.
On a longer time frame (March-Present) the current volume is tiny, although increasing. The fact of the matter is we may not see huge volume at the top, but rather the selling will take place on the way up and will continue until the market rolls over.
For now, stay on your toes and hold off on adding any long positions. This next week could determine a lot if we see big percentage losses accompanied with high volume.