Surprisingly, the S&P 500 is only down 8.74% from the top. While that is a big chunk, it less than 1% more than the last pullback. Chart:

We've tumbled 8.74% so far. The question is how much further will we go?

I’ve got a blue support line on the chart above. Based on it, we still have a little more to fall. Before that line we have the 200MA which could also be a point of support.

As far as analyzing the price movement, we have both bearish and bullish points here. The exchanges have closed in the middle of the range the last two sessions on ultra-high volume which shows both buying and selling.

The bottom line is the hedge funds are shaking out the amateurs as they buy on the way down. I expect to see a session where stocks close on/near the highs for the day after being down. This will be the turning point into a new leg of the rally.

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